navigation

14 Apr 2018

Randox Health Grand National Chase (Grade 3)

Becher’s Brook, the most famous fence in the most famous race in the world, might not be quite the test it was but, if anything, the punting opportunities offered by the Aintree Grand National are bigger. So many more trainers can prepare a quality staying chaser these days, aided by enormous prize money not seen anywhere else outside Grade 1 company.

The bookmakers’ always provide a leg up too, offering enhanced each way terms - and in any race where big prices regularly make the first 5 or 6 home, that leaves them vulnerable. Especially when some of the prices are truly spectacular.

We narrowed it down to four last year and picked up place money on Saint Are and Gas Line Boy, backed respectively at 33/1 and 80/1. From the same approach, Vics Canvas was 3rd in 2016 at 100/1. Before that, in 2013, Auroras Encore and Oscar Time were 1st and 4th respectively at 66/1.

What unites all these horses is age: they were all aged between 11 and 13. The 11-y-o’s tend to get noticed (to a degree), but anything 12+ is roundly ignored. And yet, the results conclusively prove that experience often counts when it comes to staying on into the top 5 or 6.

There are a few other points of criteria which I’ll skip over and instead move straight on to this year’s picks (for the full system just join the ENIGMA FORUM).

MAGGIO produced a career best display on the Mildmay course here 2 years ago, when absolutely hacking up at this meeting in a 25fl Listed handicap. He loves soft or heavy ground and has a superb record of completing races.

They assume DOUBLE ROSS won’t stay, but he finished strongly in the Kim Muir a few weeks ago and testing conditions slow the race down to his pace. Ran well in this race 12 months ago until his saddle slipped.

CARLINGFORD LOUGH wouldn’t be the first horse owned by J P McManus to run oddly well after pulling up last time out - National winner Don’t Push It for example. Carlingford Lough is down to a very interesting mark for a multiple Grade 1 winner, and the conditions will suit.

5.15 Aintree Maggio, 0.5pt EW 80/1 6x1/5
5.15 Aintree Double Ross, 0.5pt EW 50/1 6x1/5
5.15 Aintree Carlingford Lough, 0.5pt EW 50/1 6x1/5

Others on the 11-y-o+ short list to consider include Milansbar and Houblon Des Obeaux – both have good chances of getting round and, to be fair, just finishing today will be an achievement.

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

Strap in for the big one

SEE MORE →

24 Mar 2018

32Red Lincoln Handicap (Heritage)

The flat is back. Time to switch codes, well for this week at least. The Lincoln is a race that throws up consistent surprises, an ideal playground for each way fishing.

Casting around for something in the shocks department, J Ryan is a name who comes to mind. The Newmarket man has a great record in the race. He won it in 2014 with Ocean Tempest who raced after coming back from a busy (and unsuccessful) schedule in Meydan to hit a completely new level of form over the straight mile on soft.

Ryan almost pulled it off again with the only other horse he's tried since, Battle Of Marathon who was 3rd on soft in 2016 only beaten 3/4 length at 50/1 - again, via an unsuccessful trip to Meydan. I honestly think Ryan gets some sun on their backs and super fit for early handicap targets back home.

GREY BRITAIN shapes like another horse sent to Meydan to get fit. Not as crazy as it sounds, because (you may not realise) Sheikh Mo pays the return transport to Dubai.

Grey Britain has a nice central draw, he likes to be on the pace and probably can get to the lead in the centre. It won't be easy to hold on, but he stays further and although his wins tend to come in smaller fields, he showed at Goodwood last summer a race like this could work for him - and it's worth pointing out he has a 6lb pull for a short head with Addeybb on that form.

G Mosse has a very good record riding on a Saturday for J Ryan and although a regular visitor to GB tracks in high summer, wouldn't normally fly over for this meeting. He rides three today, including two for Ryan and I think it's this horse that may have tempted him over. Time will tell!

3.35 Doncaster, Grey Britain 1pt EW 22/1+ 5x1/5 Lads, Sun, Bway (I got 27/1 Oddsboosted with Lads)

There's no point taking short prices in a race of this nature - but it pays to be an early bird - ENIGMA Forum members were advised to get on Addeybb antepost at 10/1 EW, which certainly doesn't look too shabby now either.

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** Feedback: A good day on the forum, 2pt EW on Addeybb at 10's, could be called the winner a long way out. Grey Britain failed to get to the front and faded tamely **


SEE MORE →

21 Mar 2018

Cheltenham Performance

A very good Cheltenham for the Pro Tips blog.

On Pro Tips we staked 14 points across the 4 days, for a profit of +5.50 points (39.29% ROI). However, that was just the tip of our betting iceberg.

Subscribers to our members only ENIGMA Forum could also access the bets from our premier Value Seeker thread, which racked up a monster total.

27.50 points staked, for a profit of +40.75 points (148.18% ROI).

At £84.99 for annual access, the ENIGMA Forum is a genuine punting bargain - that's £815 profit at £20 per point, from just one meeting (albeit a very big one).

As an ENIGMA member you also receive:
Outstanding performance across a wide range of proofed threads
Private gallop reports (we have shares in over 40 horses in training)
Racing system library: professional systems and angles to download

Comment:
"This is a truly wonderful service, there are some very astute people on here." 
- Steven L, Enigma
"The best betting site online, bar none. Simply brilliant." 

- Roger C, Enigma

Explore ENIGMA at your leisure with our 1-month trial.

For more information visit: www.keyracingnews.com

Yours in sport,

The Key Racing News team








SEE MORE →

16 Mar 2018

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

A nice 7/1 winner for the blog yesterday in Shattered Love; turning in it looked all over bar the jumping and thankfully she made it home. If Glenloe was a slicker jumper he too would have collected, held off by the narrowest of margins.

Thursday was also a huge day for ‘The Cheltenham File’ our fanatical Festival angles report, which flagged 11 qualifiers on the ENIGMA forum, including 3 wins and 3 placed. Anyone who subscribed before Cheltenham has already recouped their annual membership many, many times over.

So, to Day 4. It’s fitting to round things off with the Gold Cup. My approach to this race is to narrow the field with some basic class trends: handicap mark 166+, previously won a Grade 1 race of any kind and aged 6 to 9yo. These criteria make a blind profit and has shortlisted the winner every year bar one since 1999.

This year’s list is: Might Bite, Native River, Road To Respect, Our Duke.

Everyone who runs racehorse share syndicates has a ‘one that got away’ story, and here’s mine.

I run the ENIGMA Racing syndicates and we have shares in a number of horses at Seven Barrows. One day Nicky showed us a handsome, but raw and slightly unfurnished gelding he had knocking around.

JP didn’t want it, nor Munir or Buckley or any of his other big owners. Which of course was off-putting. Eventually he found someone to take it. That horse turned out to be none other than Might Bite. It just goes to show what an amazing place Seven Barrows is – where else would that happen? He buys really nice horses.

It’s bad enough he won the King George. Today I discover whether we came within a whisker of owning a share in a Gold Cup winner. Deep joy!

All that aside, this is a day of reckoning for Might Bite. He’s not the most natural jumper in the world and you would think speedier, flatter tracks would be his natural habitat. It’s hard to shake the memory of that quirky / iffy display in a very average RSA last year.

No hiding place here, every which way this is a proper race. In his prime, as he surely is, Might Bite may just win anyway, but there are some big questions to answer - not only the ground, but his King George victory also looked a pretty average renewal. Today he must answer these questions, and in the meantime I suspect the percentage call is to take him on.

I’m against Native River. I backed him last year, he ran very well but got beat and horses who fail to win and come back to try again have a terrible win record. I also think this looks a better renewal.

Which leaves Irish Grand National winner Our Duke, who is heavily fancied in Ireland and Road To Respect who does look the most underestimated horse in the field, and a knocking each way shout. They’ll do for me.

3.30 Our Duke 1pt win 6/1 various
3.30 Road To Respect 1pt EW 11/1+, 4x1/5 generally

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** Feedback: The correct decision to oppose Might Bite, Native River did the business from our short-list, Road To Respect earned place money **



Day 4, the end is nigh

SEE MORE →

15 Mar 2018

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

Another very good day the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA forum yesterday – I was just relieved to have picked one of the better ones for the Pro Tips blog in Barra, who collected the place money and gave us a great run. They kept him wide for much of the race and that just edged us out in the finish.

In the bumper Acey Milan was ridden like he couldn’t be beaten and just ended up with a target on his back which, as we’ve seen all week, didn’t end too well. The winner came from the rear.

On to Day 3. I’ve tipped in 6 races today on the forum and put up half of those on today's blog. All are in with excellent chances - well found in the market, but that’s because they look very solid in the conditions.

This race looks destined to go to Ireland and it’s really a choice between Willie and Gordon. We’ve opted for SHATTERED LOVE who ticks all the boxes and offers better value.

We all know GLENLOE is laid out. Geraghty has sat on most of the other JP entries and still rides Glenloe, who is in the right area of the handicap and looks absolutely ideal for this race.
  
SAM SPINNER is still progressing and the sole selection for a very good Stayers Hurdle system we operate. He doesn’t have to lead and will do his own thing. He’s the one they all have to beat.

1.30 Shattered Love 1pt win 7/1 various
2.10 Glenloe 1pt win 6/1+ generally
3.30 Sam Spinner 1pt win 7/2 (may drift, try to get BOG terms)

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** Feedback: Nice win for Shattered Love, Glenloe denied by the narrowest of margins **



Day 3, sponsored by Guinness

SEE MORE →
COPYRIGHT KEY RACING NEWS | PRIVACY POLICY