At first glance this conditions stakes looks a one-sided affair with the 110-rated Custom Cut taking on an assortment of handicappers and one or two under-achievers.
However the 8-y-o gelding is a son of soft ground sire Notnowcato, and has done all his best work on an easy surface. They are relying on class to win out, for a horse who comes across these days as not quite absolutely keen to put it all in.
Bookmakers make a career out of laying such horses and 4/5 looks awfully short.
Bryan Smart will be hoping that gelding proves the key to Kentuckyconnection, who was 5th in last year's Guineas but one I have in my tracker, and who could well be improving, is Kevin Ryan's MOUNT TAHAN.
The 5-y-o looked in great nick in the Spring Mile, travelling best of all for a long way before just finding the trip slightly beyond him. 7fl is his bag and the step back down is just what he wants.
Take out the slightly wobbly favourite and it's certainly an open race, and I'm not at all surprised Mount Tahan has attracted support this morning.
Good luck today,
1.5pt win Mount Tahan, 6/1 generally
** Feedback: Ran well for 3rd, a drifting favourite duly beaten - a great bet for layers. Our pick went off 100/30 - we won't go too far wrong this year backing those at 6/1 **
|Custom Cut (right) could well prove vulnerable today on fast ground|