4 Jul 2020

Investec Derby (Group 1)

Great to be back with the blog after a very good week at Ascot.

My Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA forum has operated at 70% return on investment since racing resumed behind closed doors - and hopefully, you took advantage of our confident tip for the St James Palace.

Today we move on to the Derby and I think this shapes like a day to respect the Ballydoyle improvers.

In the modern era, Coolmore rule the Derby in terms of profit potential. When they don't win they hit the frame, including some very lumpy prices.

Their slow-maturing runners with just a single pipe-opener prep often take a big step forward on the day and confound the market.

So, I focus on Ballydoyle runners with 1 prep run who were ridden by Heffernan, Moore or (while riding), Joseph O'Brien.

Jockeys for the big day itself must be Irish-based or Ryan Moore.

If you followed that criteria in the modern era (since 2012), staked 1pt EW at SP:

7 win or placed from 11 qualifiers (incl 4 wins) +53.50 pts profit.

Mogul is the sole qualifier this year. The full brother of Japan, Mogul ran a quietly taking prep (rather like Japan himself) and this very much looks the long-range plan. I backed Japan last year - he really should have won, was much the best horse in the race and soon made up for it.

I think Mogul will be extremely hard to keep out of the frame today and if he progresses as expected will be firmly in the mix.

4.55 Epsom, Mogul 1pt win BSP, 1.5pt 4 places BSP

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