7 Jun 2020

Qipco 1000 Guineas (Group 1)

On to the 1000 Guineas. As suspected yesterday Pinatubo looks like he will find things much more difficult this year, as the bigger more scopey 2-y-o’s from 2019 fill out.

Our pick was never at the races; Mums Tipple raced keenly from the break and didn’t handle the undulations. He also underlined the Hannon team are all coming out needing the run. I’m sure they will drop Mums Tipple back in trip on a flat track in due course and he could bounce back.

Meanwhile, today the one I have backed in the 1000 Guineas is John Gosden’s sole entry SHIMMERING owned by Watership Down Stud. Although he rarely wins this race, Mr Gosden has a long history of landing big prices in the top 4. His last nine runners in have produced:

2019, 4th 33/1
2017, 3rd 5/1
2012, 2nd 33/1 & 4th 22/1
2011, 3rd 22/1

In short, 5 out of 9, top 4. Basically, just being there is a very fair indicator the yard feel they have a bona fide chance of a top 4 finish and Gosden is fretting about the draw this morning which is often a sign that they think a horse might even have a win chance.

Frankie is on board for top connections. It’s the sole entry from a top-tier operation who have started in great form. Looks well worth a speculative EW bet.

3.35 Newmarket, Shimmering 1pt win BSP, 1pt 4 places BSP

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