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31 Jul 2020

Galway Guinness Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)

An exciting week for the ENIGMA Syndicates at Goodwood - we have a stake in Ventura Diamond who runs today in the fillies' novice and the fast improving Lexington Dash will get his ground tomorrow in the Stewards' Cup.

However, this week across the water it's also the one and only Galway Festival. An empty Galway almost feels like a sin, but the racing is brilliant as ever.

Today it's the turn of the Guinness Handicap where lightly weighted improvers are your first port of call these days and RECENT REVELATIONS ticks a lot of boxes.

A staying on 4th in the Fred Winter back in March, I think he's a horse who despite his breeding will relish the step up in trip today. He was always too slow for the flat and it seems the dam's staying German genes are coming through.

He tried 2m4fl recently and got outpaced when they quickened up but then stayed on nicely - they didn't go a great pace to be fair, but in the grander scheme of things he comes across as being readied for a tilt at a nice pot.

He’s a galloper and super-interesting in this off his light weight, trying a trip in a valuable handicap for Gordon Elliott.

Davy would be on board, but he can't do the weight but they've booked an excellent sub.

Recent Revelations has won on soft and his career best at Cheltenham was on soft too.

He goes right-handed, fit, proven ability in good form, likely to appreciate trip and ground. He looks set for a big tilt.

6.15 Galway, Recent Revelations 1.75pt win, 0.75pt 4 places BSP

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18 Jul 2020

John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap)

A big weekend for the ENIGMA SYNDICATES - we we have a stake in Ventura Tormenta who goes for the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin on Sunday at Chantilly. Not too shabby £250 a share.

Meanwhile, it's on to York where it feels great to be back for a top handicap like the John Smith's Cup.

There's a very good angle into this race; concentrate on feasibly treated horses who have previously been given a shot in Group 2 or 3 company.

Since 2014, such horses are 4 wins and 3 placed from 27. That's the winner every year since 2014, in all but 2 years. 

If we concentrate on runners aged 4 to 7yo who have won at least 1 handicap before (ie shown they can), that trims the sample down to 4 win 3 placed from 22: +28pts SP win only or +37.50 EW. The BSP win only +47.59 pts.

Moreover, there's only been 1 year since 2014 when at least 1 qualifier didn't win or make the frame.

This year’s shortlist: Fifth Position, Pivoine, Certain Lad.

I've not backed Fifth Position as the track is drying up towards good to firm and he ideally needs a bit of cushion. That could be a mistake if it's loose on top but hopefully not.

Mr Channon sends CERTAIN LAD who arrives here via Epsom and a run that looked purely for conditioning (in fact I'm sure of it). Certain Lad is a different horse on flat tracks so last time out his trainer couldn't have picked a venue where he would be less likely to perform.

There's no doubt in my mind this is the real target, and this is a horse who has lots of ability and was in career best form over the winter. 

The 7lb claimer puts him on a very dangerous net weught and he's not a complicated ride - he loves to run on and they can just come with a wet sail up the straight in a race which looks sure to be strongly run.

PIVOINE won this last year and is a York specialist. He won't mind how much it dries out and will have been trained for this. He's 2lbs higher than last year, but that's far from insurmountable and he's reportedly in great nick at home.

2.30 York, Certain Lad 1pt win BSP, 1pt 4 places BSP  ** 2nd at 12.29 BSP for the place - but so close to landing 102.47 BSP for the win - the market couldn't read the tea leaves **

2.30 York, Pivoine 1pt win BSP, 1pt 4 places BSP

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York racecourse - Knavesmire


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11 Jul 2020

B365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap)

A very exciting day for us, as the ENIGMA Syndicates have a stake in Ventura Tormenta who takes his chance in the Superlative Stakes today, provided the ground dries up to somewhere around goodish. We think he'll appreciate the extra furlong.

These are the days we dream about. Through ENIGMA, his owners paid just £251 per share. 

The Bunbury Cup

I've been looking at CARDSHARP all week. He has a really good course record, 7fl is his trip and he's sure to go off a nice price.

The selection won a Group 2 here as a juvenile and was only beaten 1 length in this race as a 3-y-o, carrying 8lbs more. He's still only 5-y-o now and has worked down to a very attractive mark.

Poor recent form means nothing for an older Johnson handicapper. Cardsharp's form was poor coming into the race 2 years ago when he 4th and there were clear signs of revival early season this year. 

There is more than a whiff of him being lined up by Mark Johnston today. James Doyle rode all his past good races here and he's back on board today. 

Cardsharp has won on good and gd-sft before. I also tend to like stalls 10+ in this race, and the other Johnston runners are drawn low. 

It will be no surprise at all if he heavily outruns his price today, which is somewhere up around 22's.

4.10 Newmarket, Cardsharp 1.25pt win BSP, 1.25pt 5 places BSP

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4 Jul 2020

Investec Derby (Group 1)

Great to be back with the blog after a very good week at Ascot.

My Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA forum has operated at 70% return on investment since racing resumed behind closed doors - and hopefully, you took advantage of our confident tip for the St James Palace.

Today we move on to the Derby and I think this shapes like a day to respect the Ballydoyle improvers.

In the modern era, Coolmore rule the Derby in terms of profit potential. When they don't win they hit the frame, including some very lumpy prices.

Their slow-maturing runners with just a single pipe-opener prep often take a big step forward on the day and confound the market.

So, I focus on Ballydoyle runners with 1 prep run who were ridden by Heffernan, Moore or (while riding), Joseph O'Brien.

Jockeys for the big day itself must be Irish-based or Ryan Moore.

If you followed that criteria in the modern era (since 2012), staked 1pt EW at SP:

7 win or placed from 11 qualifiers (incl 4 wins) +53.50 pts profit.

Mogul is the sole qualifier this year. The full brother of Japan, Mogul ran a quietly taking prep (rather like Japan himself) and this very much looks the long-range plan. I backed Japan last year - he really should have won, was much the best horse in the race and soon made up for it.

I think Mogul will be extremely hard to keep out of the frame today and if he progresses as expected will be firmly in the mix.

4.55 Epsom, Mogul 1pt win BSP, 1.5pt 4 places BSP

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20 Jun 2020

St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1)

Despite the tricky feeling going into Ascot it's been a very good week so far for me. My Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA forum has landed a nice profit every day bar one, and I think we have a very good chance of keeping it going today.

Pinatubo did not look the scopiest last season and unless he was undercooked going into the Guineas (unlikely), that came to haunt him at Newmarket tackling the extra furlong. 

Connections have little option but to come here - by waiting they risk falling further behind - but Pinatubo definitely has a question to answer as these classy slower maturing 3-y-o types come on stream.

On paper Wichita is the one to beat today, but he has a very interesting opponent representing top connections in PALACE PIER and you can see the two of them settling down to fight it out.

John Gosden made a canny move in swerving Newmarket and a has a fresh well-prepared horse coming into this. It's also always a significant sign when he moves a horse heavily up in class to Group 1 company.

Palace Pier cost 600,000 GNS at Tatts Book 1, is bred to be a serious horse and I think Mr Gosden knows he has a very good one on his hands.

The Gosden team are also in outstanding form and there's no one better on the round course than Frankie. It's usually the case he gets first run on Ryan Moore in their Ascot battles, which always gives him a fighting chance. Looks a cracking contest.

3pm Ascot, Palace Pier 1pt win BSP & 1pt 2 places BSP  ** WON 7.78 BSP ( & 3.46 place BSP)...great prices! **

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12 Jun 2020

Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1)

A cracking few days on the ENIGMA forum. 3 syndicate horses pencilled in for Royal Ascot and two class 4 handicap winners for the syndicates. Oleg, impressive at Pontefract in his prep for the stayers’ handicap at Goodwood, while Batchelor Boy romped in at Wolvy - both flagged at members.

At £79.99 per year ENIGMA is amazing valueFORUM FEATURES

The Irish 2000 Guineas today.

With the turning nature of the Curragh Guineas mile, in this race it usually pays to be in the low numbered stalls, especially 1-3 (but 1-6 will do).

Juddmonte's hot favourite Siskin has a plumb birth in stall 2, but has the look of an endangered species surrounded by the Ballydoyle horde on all sides. He's never gone further than 6fl, and with stamina to prove going forwards to dominate, hoping to avoid trouble, looks off the agenda.

If he tucks in and takes a lead he stands to get trapped and be unable to time his run. Taking him on with a lively EW shot looks a solid play and here ROYAL LYTHAM fits the bill.

Miler pedigree

Last seen behind Siskin in the Phoenix Stakes, a running on 3rd after doing the donkey work, he only just failed to get back up for 2nd. They said his saddle slipped, but if it did you really wouldn't know it - although if that is true then he's done extra well.

Essentially, it seemed he was done for toe with his his stamina kicking in too late. He's by Gleneagles and the step up to a mile looks just the ticket. They've reached for the blinkers too; so it might be he just idled, but they are throwing everything at this today and that’s a good sign because he’s far from out of it.

You can see Royal Lytham bouncing out from stall 3 and sitting 1st or 2nd and getting first run. If he's ultimately done for a change of gears he should still be hard to knock out of the frame.

Also interesting to see Aiden O'Brien half-directing punters on to Armoury this morning, which feels like a smokescreen. Hills are offering 10/1 to 4 places about Royal Lytham which feels like a gift if you have an account. But with the new norm, I'll be relying on BSP.

6.40 Curragh, Royal Lytham 1pt win BSP, 1pt 3 places BSP

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7 Jun 2020

Qipco 1000 Guineas (Group 1)

On to the 1000 Guineas. As suspected yesterday Pinatubo looks like he will find things much more difficult this year, as the bigger more scopey 2-y-o’s from 2019 fill out.

Our pick was never at the races; Mums Tipple raced keenly from the break and didn’t handle the undulations. He also underlined the Hannon team are all coming out needing the run. I’m sure they will drop Mums Tipple back in trip on a flat track in due course and he could bounce back.

Meanwhile, today the one I have backed in the 1000 Guineas is John Gosden’s sole entry SHIMMERING owned by Watership Down Stud. Although he rarely wins this race, Mr Gosden has a long history of landing big prices in the top 4. His last nine runners in have produced:

2019, 4th 33/1
2017, 3rd 5/1
2012, 2nd 33/1 & 4th 22/1
2011, 3rd 22/1

In short, 5 out of 9, top 4. Basically, just being there is a very fair indicator the yard feel they have a bona fide chance of a top 4 finish and Gosden is fretting about the draw this morning which is often a sign that they think a horse might even have a win chance.

Frankie is on board for top connections. It’s the sole entry from a top-tier operation who have started in great form. Looks well worth a speculative EW bet.

3.35 Newmarket, Shimmering 1pt win BSP, 1pt 4 places BSP

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6 Jun 2020

Qipco 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

Well here we are, finally back in the thick of the action - if strangely deserted. It’s a Guineas day like no other.

The race revolves around Pinatubo was finished his 2-y-o campaign rated higher than Frankel. Whether he can repeat the feat at a 3-y-o remains to be seen. He didn’t come across as obviously scopey last year, just very talented. 

We all love a champion, so let’s hope he he thrives again.

But there is that doubt and for my money the 2nd best producer of 2-y-o form from 2019 was MUMS TIPPLE in the Goffs sales race at York. In a race that could prove more open than it looks, his price is a bit of an insult.

He carried 5lbs more at York than the winner of the preceding race, the Gr2 Lowther, but ran 1.42 seconds quicker over C&D. RPR 118 on 2nd career start. Both runs have been franked many times.

Everyone knows he finished lame in the Middle Park and was well below the form expected which suggests that can (in fairness) be ignored.

He’s also bred for a mile, perhaps more so than Ballydoyle’s contenders by speedster No Nay Never. 
On top of that the Hannon’s have a long history of form when it comes to landing shocks in Guineas races. 

Since Junior took over Night Of Thunder and Billesdon Brook have kept up the family tradition, while Richard Senior made his career of it. They aim to buy milers, and this is their Derby.

The Hannon’s are widely reported to be delighted with his work - and we know first-hand that they are just as delighted privately as they are in pubic. 

Now it’s down to the horse. It’s going to be a fascinating race and he goes there a contender at a big price.

3.35 Newmarket, Mums Tipple - 0.5pt Win BSP, 0.75pt 3 Places BSP

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10 May 2020

Syndicate Best Bets

Hi folks,

I hope this finds you healthy and well.

Whilst there are far bigger issues at stake just now than racing, from a purely selfish point of view it does look like GB racing will be back quite soon - probably around the end of May or thereabouts. 

In the race to be ready, we at ENIGMA are blessed with a headstart, because apart from the racing forum, ENIGMA is also heavily involved with racehorse share ownership.

We currently manage a stake in over 50 horses, so we have huge number of 2yo and 3yo horses waiting in the wings to provide the odd decent bet to get us going. 

We monitor the gallop reports daily and the news is coming thick and fast.

Best bets
We flag the best syndicate bets to ENIGMA members through a convenient forum thread.

Members can subscribe to the thread with a single mouse-click, and receive an automatic email whenever there's a new post. These are 'Member only' bets, so they don't normally appear on this blog.

There's a screen shot below of the most recent bet, flagged just before lockdown.

Value
Syndicate 'best bets' are just one of the many benefits of ENIGMA. Membership is amazing value, especially when you consider the annual subs are easily covered by a single successful bet. 

For example, £10 EW on Magical Wish below would have covered your subs for a whole year, and half the next year too.

Invitation
To make this enforced break feel productive, I have used the time to improve the ENIGMA website.

Whether you are interested in the betting side, the racehorse shares (or both), you will find the new layout full of new useful information and I invite you to see for yourself. 

Guarantee
If you have a passion for racing and a cheerful, positive outlook, I can pretty much guarantee that you will absolutely love ENIGMA. 

In fact, you belong there. Away from the crowd. 

Browse the new site, take the tour - better still join in and get us batting for you this summer. 

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The final syndicate best bet before lockdown March 2020 (it was a belter)




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15 Mar 2020

Foxhunter Chase Winner A Massive 224.95 BSP

The ENIGMA forum system library hit a monster payday this week at Cheltenham.

Our Foxhunter Chase system - with a track record of success that goes right back to 1998 - this year shortlisted 66/1 winner It Came To Pass, who not only romped home to victory but returned an enormous 224.95 for a £1 stake at Betfair SP.

The ENIGMA system library is an expert resource, compiled by a professional backer for the benefit of members. It's growing too, with new angles added every year.

The system library is free to access for ENIGMA forum members - just one of the benefits of ENIGMA forum membership.

All system qualifiers are flagged via our Key Racing Gold thread.

Members can subscribe to any forum thread with just 1-click, setting up an automatic email whenever there is a new post. No further work required, set and forget.

Take the ENIGMA forum tour:
https://www.enigmaracing.net/racing-forum/4593353001

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Our Festival Foxhunter Chase system lands the motherload in 2020

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13 Mar 2020

Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 4

I hope you've been having a great week. Let's see if we can wrap the Cheltenham blog up with a bang - even if it's Friday 13th.

This might wind up being a very good day for Paul Nicholls.

I was at Kempton for Solo's highly impressive Triumph Hurdle prep - the same race Paul Nicholls used for the mighty Zarkandar who duly obliged in the big one doing me a nice favour in the process.

Solo was every bit as impressive. He could be anything, but he was as impressive as Zarkandar was at Kempton and that anything is could well be pretty damn smart.

In the Gold Cup, Clan Des Obeaux has received a very different prep to last year and was brilliant in the King George.

At the peak of his powers I think he'll give the favourite a real race. My only concern is that his 3 best career RPR's have all come right-handed and I think he might be better going that way, but provided he gets round in 1 piece I'm very confident he'll make the frame and with luck will go one better.

1.30 Cheltenham, Solo 2pt win 4/1
3.30 Cheltenham, Clan Des Obeaux 1.5pt EW 8/1, Paddy Power 4x1/5

Clan Des Obeaux 8/1, 4x1/5 & Solo 4/1, 4x1/4
1pt EW double, Paddy Power

To get all my bets this week, simply join the ENIGMA FORUM, where members can follow any thread, with qualifiers automatically emailed.

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Can't believe it's Day 4 already...

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12 Mar 2020

Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 3

Trying hard to put up the best bet from my Key Racing Gold thread each day during the Festival, but unfortunately you didn't get the winner yesterday, albeit that 11/1 shot ran at a different meeting.

The Pertemps is another of those races that gives you a bona fide chance of landing a proper price. These races are like the par 5's in golf - it pays to have a rip at them (with an educated plan) - and I think I have one for you who today will run a very well at a price.

Jonjo has won this race 4 times and has a live candidate again in DREAM BERRY, ridden by Jonjo Jr for JP McManus, who so far has this meeting well and truly by the scruff of the neck.

Dropped 7lbs to an inviting mark while off the racecourse, he ran a very encouraging race on comeback and has been kept fresh for this ever since. Dream Berry has lots of solid big handicap form and is in ideal hands for a career revival.

Short of bad luck, I suspect he will run very well in this with solid frame prospects, although you couldn't rule out more.

2.10 Cheltenham, Dream Berry 0.5pt EW 16/1+ 5x1/5 generally & 1pt 5 place market BSP

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Can Jonjo O'Neill make it 5 in the Pertemps?

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11 Mar 2020

Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 2

A good 'starter for ten' yesterday with Imperial Aura, let's see if we can build on that with a crack at the Coral Cup today, one of my favourite betting races of the week - the Coral Cup is a prime chance to land the big price that makes your whole meeting.

So, back to the scene of the crime, with William Henry tipped last year at 33/1.

Nicky Henderson invariably has one or two that run well in this race and William Henry was a memorable winner in 2019, the mount of Nico DB. 

The same combo are represented here by Burrows Edge, last seen hacking up in the Lanzarote at Kempton in January when aided by fallers, although there's a fair chance he would have won anyway as he was just taking off. And that could be the key to him: the step up in trip looks exactly what he wants. Hendo's string are in terrific form too.

Burrows Edge has plenty of soft ground form and also comes up as a very good match on my trends for the race (as did the winner last year). At the prices, whatever the outcome, Burrows Edge is a no-brainer compared to the skinny terms offered about Dame de Compiegne 

I think Burrows Edge may prove the best of Hendo's challenge and I'm proposing a few savers from amongst the Irish contingent.

Willie's Franco De Port is very unexposed and a sure improver - remember Townend had the pick of a long list of entries. Plus I'm backing the less obvious Coko Beach for Gordon Elliott, who might surprise a few people if the headgear does the trick. It's worth bearing in mind he was 2nd at the Festival last year and on a going day may prove a better stayer than Elliott's Black Tears.

2.50 Cheltenham, Burrows Edge 1pt EW 16/1+, 6x1/5 generally (Lads are offering 20/1)
2.50 Cheltenham, Franco De Port 0.75pt win BSP
2.50 Cheltenham, Coko Beach 0.5pt win BSP


** The short-priced Henderson plot horse won with something in hand, we move on **

To get all my bets this week, simply join the ENIGMA FORUM, where members can follow any thread, with qualifiers automatically emailed.

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Coral Cup...back at the scene of the crime

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10 Mar 2020

Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1

Time for the big one!

A bit of rain last night has kept it soft but will also keep the ground fresh, a fantastic, open-looking day’s racing in prospect.

It goes without saying we are looking for horses at home in the conditions who will stay.

I will aim to give you one or two bets each day from among the account bets on my Key Racing Gold thread. To access the full thread, you need to be a member ENIGMA FORUM.

And so, Day 1.

1.30 Cheltenham, Fiddlerontheroof 1.5pt EW 5/1 7x1/5 Hills

Looks a bet to nothing on that concession – but still a worthwhile bet to 5 places with other firms at a slightly bigger price. The Mullins favourite jumps right and might not be as strong as some he’s sent here in the past. Fiddler arrives via a highly impressive win in the Tolworth.

4.50 Cheltenham, Imperial Aura 1pt EW 5x1/5 888, Victor

Imperial Aura ran a very eye-catching race here on Trials day. He looks thoroughly laid out by Kim Bailey and sure to run a big race in conditions that will suit. Connections have been backing him heavily for some time.

** A good start; Imperial Aura romped home to win, but Fiddlerontheroof folded tamely - although as suspected the Mullins raider proved beatable **

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Finally, the wait is over. Bring it on...Cheltenham Day 1


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31 Jan 2020

Waving Farewell To Creationist


We bid a fond farewell today to CREATIONIST, sold at Tattersalls this afternoon for 60,000 GNS.

The ENIGMA syndicates took a stake in him through Nick Bradley Racing and it’s been a roller-coaster journey which went so close to a perfect ending with 2nd place in the London Middle Distance Final, worth £43,575 to the winner (failed by a neck).

He hasn’t been the easiest to train at times, but we’ve been in wonderful hands throughout with Nick Bradley and Roger Charlton, who managed to coax 6 top 3 finishes from 12 starts, and over £30,000 in prize money.

Tattersalls Website

The Roger Charlton trained Creationist was the top lot at 60,000 guineas on the second and final session of the Tattersalls February Sale…the 4-year-old by Noble Mission was knocked down to Rupert Pritchard-Gordon of RPG Bloodstock and is destined to join Ken Condon’s stable as a sparring partner for the stable star ROMANISED

The ENIGMA syndicates have amassed over 170 winners in 6 seasons.

For more information, visit: www.enigmaracing.net

Creationist, top lot on the final day of Tattersalls February sale 2020

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27 Jan 2020

Who Owns This Cheltenham Antepost Favourite?

It’s not every day you wake up to discover you own a share in the antepost favourite for a race at the Cheltenham Festival.

After a perfect 3 wins from 3 starts, Marie’s Rock is already on the same mark as Laurina when she won the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the 2018 Festival, and rated higher than 2019 winner Eglantine Du Seuil.

After so-so performances last weekend from other antepost contenders, Marie’s Rock has been trimmed to a fabulous 4/1 clear favourite.

We are made up to have a stake in her for the ENIGMA Racing syndicates - our very affordable racehorse share scheme - which in just 6 seasons went from zero to finishing 2nd in the St Leger.

In Marie’s Rock we have a shot at trying to go one better.

ENIGMA is a private members’ forum that connects people with a passion for horse racing.
The forum hosts a racing system library and a wide range of threads devoted to betting and race research.

Many of our members also form partnerships to split the cost of buying racehorse shares and thanks to a close relationship with Middleham Park Racing, we bagged a share in this cracking mare.

Our syndicate shareholders originally paid just £160 each, and their bill for upkeep has been less than £10 per month per person.

Racehorse share ownership at a price you can afford.

Learn all about ENIGMA


Marie's Rock, antepost favourite for the 2020 Festival Mares Novices Hurdle

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25 Jan 2020

Lingfield Handicap System

Well we are at the Park today - except it's not Prestbury, it's Lingfield. As luck would have it the angle applies to a couple of early races on the card, so without further ado as he clock is ticking.

Mark Johnston trained handicappers ridden by Joe Fanning are of prime interest at this venue. It’s a place where his riding style and judgement of pace combine to excellent effect. The trip down to Surrey also represents a big transport bill for owners and in recent years it’s very much paid to take the hint.

Since 2016, Johnston handicappers ridden by Fanning at this venue have delivered a blind level stakes profit of +£63.07 to SP, for a £1 stake from 64 bets. Almost a 100% return in investment.

The return to Betfair Starting Price is higher again, especially if you now take advantage of the 2% rate of commission (which I hope you do).

Lots of favourites win, but the odd double figure price too:

2016: 11 bets, 3 wins + £6.25
2017: 24 bets, 10 wins + £25.44
2018: 11 bets, 2 wins + £9.00
2019: 15 bets, 6 wins + £7.00
2020: 3 bets, 1 win + £6.00

There are two qualifiers today:

12.00 Lingfield, Cottonopolis
12.35 Lingfield, Golden Fountain

I back qualifiers to Betfair SP.

We flag the qualifiers daily for this angle and others like it to members of the ENIGMA Forum. You simply subscribe to the selection thread, and the qualifiers will drop into your inbox.

For details, including our 1 month trial:  https://www.enigmaracing.net/racing-forum/4593353001

Leafy Lingfield, in warmer months!


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