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10 Oct 2019

Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap (Class 6)

With the yearling sales in full swing I've been a bit pre-occupied of late sifting new recruits for the Enigma Racing shares scheme and putting syndicates together.

However, almost all the shares are sold now and I'm back in the game, limbering up for the Cesarewitch meeting, when this one popped up on my stats for Southwell today.

For reasons that are probably obvious to everyone by now, USA-breeding (especially USA dirt breeding) is of prime interest on Southwell's fibresand surface. 

There is a clear statistical edge in taking a chance on these sorts before the market can accurately weigh their ability. But on debut they have long proved under-priced - particularly if you focus on yards who employ it as a repeated strategy.

This has been around for ages but there are far fewer USA-bred horses around here these days, and so just a trickle of qualifiers. Richard Fahey has one today:

Richard Fahey USA-bred runners on fibresand debut at Southwell; 5 wins from 22 (22.73% SR, £27.63 LSP - an ROI of 125.59% at SP).

He has a couple of runners in the 6.15 and SEVEN FOR A POUND might be the sort to do well. He has a good draw and makes his fibresand debut having only ever shown interesting career form on the all-weather, most notably at Lingfield where he didn't stay 10fl. 

He's since come down 12lbs and looks potentially set up for a winter campaign. The drop down to a mile looks a sensible move and he has to be of interesting trying fibresand for the first time, with a USA breeding on both sides of his pedigree. 

6.15 Southwell, Seven For A Pound 1pt win 15/2 various

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold betting thread on the ENIGMA forum
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