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10 Oct 2019

Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap (Class 6)

With the yearling sales in full swing I've been a bit pre-occupied of late sifting new recruits for the Enigma Racing shares scheme and putting syndicates together.

However, almost all the shares are sold now and I'm back in the game, limbering up for the Cesarewitch meeting, when this one popped up on my stats for Southwell this evening.

For reasons that are hopefully obvious to everyone by now, USA-breeding (especially USA dirt breeding) is of interest when newcomers to Southwell first tackle fibresand. 

It's important to take a chance on such types on debut, before the market can accurately weigh their ability and clip their future prices. On debut, if you delve into the stats, there is a clear edge.

The difficulty is that we are seeing a much smaller pool of USA-bred stock here these days, so there are far fewer qualifiers. In the face of that I'm tending to avoid it, unless the fibresand debutant comes from a yard with a proven past record.

Richard Fahey's record with USA-bred runners on flat debut at Southwell is; 5 wins from 22 (22.73% SR, £27.63 LSP - an ROI of 125.59% at SP).

He has a couple of runners in the 6.15 and SEVEN FOR A POUND caught my eye. He has a good draw and makes his fibresand debut having only ever shown interesting career form on an all-weather surface, most notably at Lingfield where he didn't stay 10fl. 

He's since some down 12lbs in the handicap and looks set up for a winter campaign. The drop down to a mile looks a sensible move and he has to be of interesting trying fibresand with a USA breeding on both sides of his pedigree. 

6.15 Southwell, Seven For A Pound 1pt win 15/2 various

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold betting thread on the ENIGMA forum
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