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15 Mar 2019

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

Defi De Seuil did the business for us yesterday in the JTL. The last 6 bets on the Pro Tips Bog have served up winners at 33/1, 5/1 (7/1 BOG) and 10/3.

BUT, in that time readers of my Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum have also bagged EXTRA winners at 14/1, 6/1, 6/1, 10/3 and 7/4.

ENIGMA is a very different kind of betting forum. Because it's relentlessly high quality, you have to pay to get in. But once you are in, everything is free.

To get involved, simply go here: WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/RACING-FORUM

And so, onwards to the Gold Cup.

Thistlecrack interests me EW, but the yard's horses just lack that bit of extra sparkle at the moment. Clan Des Obeaux obviously has a question to answer in terms of stamina in partly-testing ground at a stiffer track, over an extended trip. It's not hard to see him wandering about on the hill.

Presenting Percy is a magnificent beast and perhaps the most likely winner, but clearly so inexperienced he's tough to back at the price (but good luck to him). If he drifts I'll probably have a few quid late. Native River is the reigning champ, ticks the boxes, but it's back to the Tizzard thing.

Maybe this year is ripe for an upset. If Might Bite couldn't win it last year it's a bit of a stretch to see him winning it now. Kemboy really wants very decent ground, ideally a bit faster than this and Ruby seems to be sitting on Bellshill more in hope than expectation. All this probably means Presenting Percy wins, but I think I'd rather go the outsider route.

The mare SHATTERED LOVE hosed up last year in the JLT (Kemboy well beaten), so we know she loves the track - she also needs going with soft in the title. There is also an interesting form line with Clan Des Obeaux via Terrafort in that race.

She's been disappointing this season but has not had suitable ground and has also had wind surgery. The yard regard her as a very strong stayer and they clearly think a great deal of her. She must be working well to be here.

If Gordon has got her right, then she has that all important Festival form to run a big race with her mares' allowance. The ground will hopefully just about be okay. I think she'll be ridden for a place and can get in the frame, but if Percy clobbers one the whole thing could end up wide open.

Also a quick mention for the Foxhunter Chase. The only qualifier this year on a strong trends system I use is UCELLO CONTI - he ticks every box and has the Coddfather on board for Gordon Elliott. Has to be worth a few quid.

3.30 Cheltenham, Shattered Love 0.75pt EW 25/1, 4x1/5
4.10 Cheltenham, Ucello Conti 1.5pt win 5/1 various

** Right idea, wrong outsider for the Gold Cup which proved hugely open. While Ucello Conti ran okay without ever managing to land a serious blow ** 

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/RACING-FORUM






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