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15 Mar 2019

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

Defi De Seuil did the business for us yesterday in the JTL. The last 6 bets on the Pro Tips Bog have served up winners at 33/1, 5/1 (7/1 BOG) and 10/3.

BUT, in that time readers of my Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum have also bagged EXTRA winners at 14/1, 6/1, 6/1, 10/3 and 7/4.

ENIGMA is a very different kind of betting forum. Because it's relentlessly high quality, you have to pay to get in. But once you are in, everything is free.





To get involved, simply go here: WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/RACING-FORUM

And so, onwards to the Gold Cup.

Thistlecrack interests me EW, but the yard's horses just lack that bit of extra sparkle at the moment. Clan Des Obeaux obviously has a question to answer in terms of stamina in partly-testing ground at a stiffer track, over an extended trip. It's not hard to see him wandering about on the hill.

Presenting Percy is a magnificent beast and perhaps the most likely winner, but clearly so inexperienced he's tough to back at the price (but good luck to him). If he drifts I'll probably have a few quid late. Native River is the reigning champ, ticks the boxes, but it's back to the Tizzard thing.

Maybe this year is ripe for an upset. If Might Bite couldn't win it last year it's a bit of a stretch to see him winning it now. Kemboy really wants very decent ground, ideally a bit faster than this and Ruby seems to be sitting on Bellshill more in hope than expectation. All this probably means Presenting Percy wins, but I think I'd rather go the outsider route.

The mare SHATTERED LOVE hosed up last year in the JLT (Kemboy well beaten), so we know she loves the track - she also needs going with soft in the title. There is also an interesting form line with Clan Des Obeaux via Terrafort in that race.

She's been disappointing this season but has not had suitable ground and has also had wind surgery. The yard regard her as a very strong stayer and they clearly think a great deal of her. She must be working well to be here.

If Gordon has got her right, then she has that all important Festival form to run a big race with her mares' allowance. The ground will hopefully just about be okay. I think she'll be ridden for a place and can get in the frame, but if Percy clobbers one the whole thing could end up wide open.

Also a quick mention for the Foxhunter Chase. The only qualifier this year on a strong trends system I use is UCELLO CONTI - he ticks every box and has the Coddfather on board for Gordon Elliott. Has to be worth a few quid.

3.30 Cheltenham, Shattered Love 0.75pt EW 25/1, 4x1/5
4.10 Cheltenham, Ucello Conti 1.5pt win 5/1 various

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** Right idea, wrong outsider for the Gold Cup which proved hugely open. While Ucello Conti ran okay without ever managing to land a serious blow ** 




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14 Mar 2019

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

Handicap winners at 14/1 and 33/1 so far this week on the ENIGMA Forum has been a great start. One of our members, who resides in France, messaged me yesterday to say he bagged William Henry at 56/1 on the PMU!

ENIGMA is a very different kind of betting forum. Because it's relentlessly high quality, you have to pay to get in. But once you are in, everything is free.





To get involved, simply go here: www.enigmaracing.net/racing-forum

Spend a few hours on the JLT and one and you just can't get away from DEFI DU SEUIL having a great chance. Geraghty got him beat when going too soon in the Dipper and put that right at Sandown.

Defi Du Seuil has a great course record, won't mind what the weather does and is surely the one they all have to beat. Improving mare Pravalaguna with her allowance might be the EW play, but she's probably striving for 3rd at best and she's not the biggest.

JP looks in the driving seat on this one.

1.30 Cheltenham, Defi Du Seuil 2.5pt win 10/3 various

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS


** WINNER! A touch of inevitability about it...they can't live with his kick **




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13 Mar 2019

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Winners yesterday at 6/1 and 14/1 on my ENIGMA Forum thread, so frustrating to pick the wrong one to put up on the blog. Aiming to try and fix that today.

It's going to be very tacky and stamina testing out there and I think DELTA WORK is the one they all have to beat in the RSA Chase. He's a thorough stayer and a grinder and condition looks right up his street. He also comes up strongly on my race trends and is Timeform top rated too.

Elsewhere, Nicky Henderson's WILLIAM HENRY has a similar profile to the stable's Beware The Bare who bagged the Ultima yesterday after a wind op, following an excellent run in the same race (in similar conditions) 12 months before.

William Henry goes particularly well at Cheltenham and is on the same mark as last year, albeit he's lost James Bowen's 3lb claim. Nico is on board this time, suggesting William Henry is going well at home and I can't help noticing he's been kept fresh - having won 3 times previously coming off a break. Surely well worth a poke at a huge price.

2.10 Cheltenham, Delta Work 2pt Win 11/4
2.50 Cheltenham, William Henry 0.75pt EW 33/1, 5x1/5

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** Delta Work good effort beaten fair and square, but we go into orbit with William Henry a 33/1 winner for the blog - what a t'riller! BOOM!! **





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12 Mar 2019

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

Time for the big one!

There's a bit of rain about and the going is likely to be softish. It's a wintery, windy day although they will have fresh ground to start with it's going to be very hard work in the later races.

It goes without saying we are looking for horses at home in the conditions who will stay.

I'll be pressed for time this week, but I will aim to give you one or two each day - to access all my bets you obviously need to be a member of the ENIGMA Forum.

So, to today.

The dogs are barking for the Gordon Elliott runner who is a triple qualifier on our 'Cheltenham File' stats report for the yard. Rain no issue, can be a little sketchy but has a big engine and if he gets round looks sure to run a very big race.

2.10 Cheltenham, Hardline 1.25pt EW 5/1, 3x1/5

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.KEYRACINGNEWS.COM/FORUM-RESULTS

** For whatever reason didn't fire on the big day...we move on **


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9 Mar 2019

Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

It’s that time of year again. Imperial Cup day, followed by a week of the finest jumps racing on the planet. It doesn’t get better than this, so it would be nice to set off with a winner.

You don’t get to win a race as competitive as this by accident. Horses prepared specifically for the race will always tend to be at home in soft conditions - so it's a relief to see the ground described as soft (heavy in places) on the hurdles course. Things don’t feel right at Sandown on the jumps course unless there’s ease underfoot. Anything else and I tend to lose interest.

Other than a liking for the conditions, the other key pre-requisite is to arrive in good form. Winners have almost always recently confirmed their well-being, even if smuggled into the race on a protected mark. 

They also have to be at their best going right-handed (or at least not disadvantaged).

Other things to look for. A prep run 16 to 60 days ago. Not too much weight - ideally no more than a net 11-02 - and the ability to stay further than the bare trip. Given the strong galloping, testing nature of the race it’s a real challenge just to run to your mark. The ones that do stay well.

Plug all this in and the one who ticks all the boxes is Paul Nicholls' MALAYA. Stays further - a stiff 2 miles on soft looks perfect - goes RH, ideal weight, excellent career record and an improving profile. Looks thoroughly laid too out after a deliberately quiet (but excellent) prep.

Henderson controls the handicap but has inadvertently set things up to a nicety for Malaya, although it’s worth having a saver on his own runner, DREAM DU GRAND VAL, who is improving fast and could have more untapped potential.

Looking further ahead, this would be a very timely moment to obtain ENIGMA Forum access. Once a member, it's free to subscribe to my Key Racing Gold thread and receive a copy of all my bets throughout the Festival. Roll on Tuesday!

2.25 Sandown, Malaya 1.5pt win 5/1
2.25 Sandown, Dream Du Grand Val 0.5pt win 7/1

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at:
WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/FORUM-RESULTS


** Malaya Wins 7/1 SP - jockey confirmed she had been laid out for months and was given a quiet confidence booster ahead of the big day...roll on Tuesday ** 

Mud, mud, glorious mud


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