13 Oct 2018

Dubai Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

Today it’s the Cesarewitch, the race named after Tsar Alexander II, that starts in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk.

It’s also a race tailor-made for each way players, with firms offering up to 8 places.
Generous each way concessions are a gold mine in big field handicaps. The question is how to spot real each way value?

For this race the criteria I recommend is class related: focus on horses who have previously run in any sort of Grade / Group 1 or 2 race. Then look for a good prep - a top 6 finish last time out.

The final (crucial) step is to consider the the quality of track / meeting where that prep run took place.

The No. 1 track for feeding in-form qualifiers into the Cesarewitch is Doncaster, which offers prep options via the Doncaster Cup and the Mallard. Since 1998, from 13 qualifiers Doncaster has delivered 6 in the frame, including 3 winners and First Mohican 2nd at 50/1.

So, while there are lots of other successful (albeit less successful) routes to the frame in this race, in the first instance, those running well via Doncaster are the first port of call.

In this year's Mallard, Speedo Boy travelled all over the field under Ryan Moore. He didn't have the clearest run but finished close up and full of running, shaping like the best handicapped horse in the race. He’s the right type and Ian Williams excels with his flat stayers. A high draw doesn't help his win prospects, but he's a hold up horse anyway and 28/1 to 8 places with Hills looks a gift.

In the same Doncaster race, Cliffs Of Dover shaped like a thorough stayer with untapped potential. Outpaced and under pressure from a long way out, he rattled home and looks ripe to excel for this step up. This is a horse who was a juvenile Grade 2 hurdle winner and is still only 5yo.

Nicely drawn, an in-form improver with a very low weight, even before Miss Nicholls' 5lb claim. 33/1 to 7 places with Paddy, looks huge.

3.40 Newmarket, Speedo Boy 1pt EW 28/1, 8x1/5 Hills
3.40 Newmarket, Cliffs Of Dover 1pt EW 33/1, 7x1/5 Paddy Power

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at:

** Feedback: Speedo Boy duly placed for EW money, sturdy effort. Cliffs Of Dover's chance went up in smoke under bizarre ride...**

The Cesarewich starts in Cambridgeshire and ends on the Rowley Mile in Suffolk

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