3 Feb 2018

Notes for Sandown & Musselburgh

A couple of pieces of advice that I think will guide you in the right direction this afternoon:


Sandown hosts a really good Grade 3 staying handicap hurdle, the Betfred Heroes Handicap Hurdle at 3pm.

Being Sandown in early Feb, over a stiff 3 miles and invariably run in pretty testing conditions, it’s no surprise that weight has tended to be the crucial factor.

16 of the last 18 winners carried no more than 10-12, including every winner since 2005. The ones to concentrate on are aged up to 9yo and no higher than 20/1 SP. And qualifiers regularly litter the frame. For instance, last year there were 6 qualifiers, they finished: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9.

If you had backed every qualifier since 1997, £1 EW at standard EW terms, you’d would be +£54.11 with 37 win or placed (33.33% SR). And that’s before any bookmakers’ EW concessions for 5th place. That 5th place, if you can get it, would have paid out an extra 9 times for 46 win or placed.

You might want to take a close look at this years’ possible qualifiers, who are: Flemcara, Golan Fortune, Okotoks, King Of Fashion, Dashing Park, Forth Act, Man Of Plenty. You could do a lot worse than back 2 or 3 EW who are either firmly or at least not unsupported on the way to post.


A few notable NH trainers are sending horses on a long trip (280 miles+) to Scotland today. Two to be aware of when that happens are Fergal O’Brien and Paul Nicholls in hunter chases, maiden or handicaps.

Paul Nicholls; 11 wins from 44, 25% SR, +£30.50 LSP
Fergal O’Brien; 17 wins from 44, 38.64% SR, +£49.78 LSP

O’Brien uses a variety of riders, but none more so than Paddy Brennen. When Brennan is in the plate they are 11 wins from 26, 42.31% SR, +£34.78 LSP. Brennen takes the ride today on 12.55 Muss, Imperial Eloquence & 3.15 Muss, Bells N Banjos.

The only fly in the ointment is that they have been cleaning up mid-week, so on a Saturday they are up against a hoard of Paul Nicholls runners. The current returns for Saturday only are:

Paul Nicholls; 6 wins from 28, 21.43% SR, +£15 LSP
Fergal O’Brien; 0 wins from 3, 0%, -£3.00

It would clearly be unwise to reject the O’Brien runners out of hand; Paddy Brennen is going a long way to take the rides. They all need considering, and between them are likely to produce a few winners this afternoon.

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance:

Sandown Park racecourse

No comments: