2 Dec 2017

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Grade 3)

The enhanced place terms offered for prime feature handicaps like the Hennessy are a highly useful betting angle, if you can make a fair case that the race throws up enough lumpy prices to make it worthwhile - which of course they often do.

Since 1999, looking at runners that went off between 20/1 and 50/1: I can find 15 in the frame to typical enhanced place terms that can be linked by a simple criteria (let alone the 7 places offered by Hills and Sky today.)

It's really a question of class. You are looking for horses who have won a Grade 2 or 3 race of any kind, priced today between 20/1 and 50/1. The Grade 1 winners are ignored as the prices aren't normally good enough.

Then the only other filter is that they line up today on a chase handicap mark (before any riders' claim) that is no higher than their highest chase mark in their last 10 runs. That's it.

If you had backed all such runners blind, 1pt EW since 1999, on standard industry place terms: 45 bets, 12 win or placed for +65 pts profit (+72.7% ROI). But todays enhanced place terms, even adjusting for years with smaller fields, would have yielded at least another 12.2 points profit.

There are four qualifiers this year. I put a line through Southfield Royale as he just doesn't seem in love with the game (let's hope that's true). Make sure you take SP; Hills and Sky are obviously trimming their prices due to the 7 place concession - so with any luck they should go off higher than the current quotes.

3.00 Newbury, Pleasant Company 1pt EW at SP, Hills or Skybet 5x1/7
3.00 Newbury, Label Des Obeaux 0.5pt EW at SP, Hills or Skybet 5x1/7
3.00 Newbury, Double Ross 0.5pt EW at SP, Hills or Skybet 5x1/7

Good luck,

Herbie is one of the pro-gamblers in the ENIGMA forum:

About us:

Double Ross, one of 3 live outsiders for the 2017 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase