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2 Sep 2017

Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed)

This weekend its time for the Beverley Bullet, which thanks to a heavy draw bias is always an interesting race for a bet.

After an overnight shower the going is gd-fm (good in places), and a dry day is forecast with a gentle cross wind predicted, but nothing to trouble those on the pace.

Historically, anything drawn in stall 9 or lower can win, but in practice stalls 1 to 4 enjoy such an advantage it's better to focus there and just keep an eye out for something a bit special drawn 5 to 9 (like Tangerine Trees was in 2011).

To help sift those drawn low in stalls 1 to 4, apply these filters:

Handicap mark, 96+
Weight carried 8-11 to 9-7 (before any riders' claim)
Has run in the last 6 to 75 days

Which brings us down to three this year; Mirza, Kimberella and Take Cover.

On a line of collateral form this summer through Battaash (versus Take Cover), Mirza could end up a lot closer in this than the market suggests - especially as he doesn't carry a penalty. He was 2nd in this race in 2014, a heroic effort held up from stall 9, and he can sit on the rail here tracking the pace under the excellent Joe Fanning. A fast pace to chase and stiff finish are right up his street.

The negatives are he would rather be held up further back, which will dent his finishing effort, and his win record - just one victory since 2015. He has possibilities in the Betfair place market.

Kimberella should be thereabouts. It's a logical race for him, he's held up in touch and will stay strongly, I just wonder whether he'll arrive in time over 5fl on gd-fm. On paper the race looks something of match between him and Take Cover. I couldn't argue if you decided to dutch them against the field

TAKE COVER has plenty in his favour. He's likely to bag the plumb far rail and lead and will take some getting past from there. He has a great record in Listed company and remains very fast in the right conditions.

I'd be slightly more confident if the ground was gd-fm all over, but he's very effective when he gets things his way and is worth a bet at around 5/1.

Good luck,

3.15 Beverley, Take Cover 1pt Win 11/2, Fred, Tote, Black

Herbie is one of the pro-gamblers in the ENIGMA forum:


** Feedback: A smooth victory for Take Cover, who bagged the far rail and was allowed to dictate the fractions, he wasn't stopping and nothing came close to getting past. Those drawn in stalls 1-4, filled 4 of the first 5 home ** 

Take Cover...it's the Beverley Bullet

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