5 Aug 2017

Qatar Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap)

Another welcome drying day as we arrive at the final day of Glorious Goodwood. The forecast is dry, and the going somewhere between soft and good to soft.

I worked through the Stewards' Cup two ways. First up, I sifted the trends to narrow the field - finding there are lots of small pieces of criteria that connect 15 of the last 20 winners:

Aged between 3 and 6
Official rating between 91 and 104
Current rating at least 2lbs higher than last win
1st, 2nd or 3rd in last three starts
Has won previously in at least class 3 or higher
Previously won over further than 5fl
No more than 33 previous career starts
Last ran between 6 and 75 days ago

In other words, a progressive 6fl+ sprinter, in his/her prime, who has already won a decent quality race, in form and fit. It does make sense.

The shortlist this year is; SHANGHAI GLORY, AL QAHWA, Upstaging, Stake Acclaim and Solar Flair. Of those, in the conditions, Shanghai Glory and Al Qahwa make obvious appeal for the in-form teams of Charlie Hills and David O'Meara. I like them both. Whether a far side draw is the place to be remains to be seen.

Glorious Goodwood is also a meeting heavily targeted by a small clique of top trainers - and it pays to be very aware of the usual suspects. In this particular race, no one is more profitable to follow than William Haggas: 2 win from 7 runners for +£47 points to SP (+ 77.65 BSP). He's a great EW bet, with 4 win or placed for +£64 to SP, including last years' 3rd, RAUCOUS, who lines up again from the same mark.

Raucous has previously won on soft and there's plenty of encouragement too from the pedigree. I think there's a chance he could improve with cut in the ground. He's also conveniently drawn on the other side to the two noted above, which gives us some cover stands' side.

Good luck,

3.35 Goodwood, Shanghai Glory 1pt win 16/1
3.35 Goodwood, Al Qahwa 1pt win 14/1
3.35 Goodwood, Raucous 1pt EW 16/1 5x1/4

Herbie is one of the pro-gamblers in the ENIGMA forum:

** Feedback: Shanghai Glory and Upstaging won place money from our stats shortlist - Al Qahwa repeatedly hampered, eventually snatched up and lost all chance. Raucous, no chance from high draw, all the action developed far side - but ran a quietly eye-catching race (one for the notebook) ** 

Raucous 3rd in the 2016 Stewards Cup for race specialist William Haggas

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