26 Aug 2017

Betfred Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

York Day 4 and time for the big one - Europe's richest handicap, the one and only Ebor.

The percentage call with big field, top class handicaps is almost always to look for each way value and take advantage of bookmakers' enhanced place terms. The Ebor is no exception, with a rich history of big prices not only making the frame, but winning too.

Hunt for candidates with this criteria:

Aged: 4 to 7-y-o
Has come either 1st, 2nd or 3rd sometime in last 10 runs
Highest class career victory: either a class 2, 3 or 4 handicap, or a Group 1 or 2.
Has previously run in any sort of race over a trip between 2 miles to 2m 6fl.
Available odds: 16/1+

Since 1997, 87 horses have met this criteria - producing 19 win or placed on standard EW terms, for a £1 level stakes profit of £302.75. Extra 5th place terms would have added several more placed at 20/1+.

At the time of writing, this years' qualifiers are: Winning Story, Natural Scenery, Seamour, Soldier In Action. I would suggest the two to concentrate on are Seamour and Natural Scenery.

Seamour was 5th last year on similar ground, from a similar wide draw, from a mark of 103. He lines up today on 102 and takes off a further 5lb via talented claiming rider Ben Robinson. Last year Seamour was ridden aggressively from the break to slot in and track the leaders - quite an ask for a much less experienced jockey. He's also had an interrupted prep.

NATURAL SCENERY comes here after a fine run in the Northumberland Plate, where she raced prominently. She's drawn in 6 today which will suit her positive style. The trip holds no fears and Saeed Bin Suroor deals with the 2lb rise, by employing top 3lb claimer Edward Greatrex who has performed very well this year in the Godolphin silks.

Natural Scenery lines up with an improving profile from an ideal position in the handicap. Goodwood proved she goes well on turf, and these drying conditions should suit her a lot more than the testing ground she encountered there.

Good luck,

3.35 York, Natural Scenery 1pt EW 16/1, 1/4 odds to 5 places 188bet

Herbie is one of the pro-gamblers in the ENIGMA forum:

** Feedback: Got clear too late, finished like a train into 3rd to land place money and would surely have gone very close with a smooth run...shame didn't hold a better early position **

Natural Scenery, EW value for Saeed Bin Suroor in the Ebor Handicap

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