13 May 2017

Totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)

It's an interesting aspect of the Victoria Cup that horses who have not yet won a class 2 handicap, whatever their age, are ones to look at closely - and more specifically runners who combine that 'under the radar' quality with an improving profile - i.e. now rated higher than their most recent win.

This helps us root for each way value - a must in any race where the layers have taken a vulnerable stance by offering enhanced EW terms. A recurring theme in this blog.

Here's how it breaks down. If we focus on runners who were available at an each way price, from 12/1 to 50/1:

Since 2004 in renewals run at Ascot, there have been 6 winners in that price range from 234 runners, producing a loss of -£134.75 on standard place terms, staked 1pt EW. However add in the above filters and this becomes 5 winners from 89 qualifiers, producing a level stakes profit of £16.00 win only or +£36.00 each way.

If able to take 5x1/4 EW terms that profit increases to +£54.50 - an increase of 66% for just 1 extra place. The long term worth of that extra place is not to be underestimated. Of course I'm not about to back them all, but it's a very good way to create a value short list.

The qualifiers this year are; Donncha, Holiday Magic, Noble Peace, Shady McCoy, The Warrior and Taurean Star. I spent a long time on it last night and the latter two do interest me.

THE WARRIOR comes here off the back of a highly promising run at Goodwood. He was a fast finishing 8th in this race last year, only beaten 3 lengths and 7lbs lower this time plus claims an extra 5lbs. He looks a straight up in form, well handicapped horse.

On the other side of the draw TAUREAN STAR is the mount of Jamie Spencer who is the go to rider on straight tracks at Grade 1 venues and Michael Bell is one of the trainers who knows his value. Taurean Star is a lightly-raced Ascot specialist who looks firmly on the upgrade and the yard are in great form.

Unfortunately he's not hard to find and his price has now dipped below 12/1, but with so much in his favour, I think he's well worth keeping on side.

Good luck,

Taurean Star, 1pt EW 10/1+ B365, Fred, Tote, Winner 5x1/4
The Warrior, 1pt EW 14/1+, B365, Fred, Tote, Winner 5x1/4

Herbie is one of the resident pro-gamblers in ENIGMA:


** Feedback: A frustrating one with The Warrior coming to claim 2nd or 3rd and forced to snatch up. Our approach though was bang on; Shady McCoy 4th at 33/1 and Holiday Magic 6th at 50/1 (Paddy Power paid 6x1/5). Taurean Star had no chance from a low draw on the day. A race that needs to be watched a few times **

Does Taurean Star hold the key to the Victoria Cup for Michael Bell?

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