4 Feb 2017

Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

A really good competitive staying hurdle, and given it's run at Sandown at the beginning of February, invariably run in pretty testing conditions, so it's no surprise that over the years weight has proved a crucial factor.

13 of the last 14 winners carried no more than 10-12, including every winner since 2005. In fact over that time, if you just blindly backed every runner up to 20/1 SP, with 10-12 or less (up to 10-y-o), you would be 13 wins from 89 qualifiers, +34.38 pts LSP.

Looking at this years' field, if we assume Ballyculla will start above 20/1 that leaves; Fountains Windfall, Lord Of The Island, Fortunate George, Desert Sensation & Behind Time. Lightly-raced improvers have a particularly good record.

Qualifiers with up to 5 previous career starts over hurdles are 6 wins from 22, but that improves to 5 wins from 12 (41.67% SR), when starting in the first 3 in the betting - 3 from 3 when going off favourite. Suddenly odds circa 5/1, don't seem quite so bad.

** Feedback: The 5 on our shortlist finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th & 6th...if you'd backed all 5 you would have returned +6 pts on the day. Without a doubt the way to narrow the field in this race, roll on 2018..."

The lovely Mr Harry Fry

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