11 Feb 2017

32Red Casino Handicap (2pm Lingfield, class 3)

As I write this it's hard to know if Newbury will be on today, and with just 16 declared the Betfair Hurdle seems destined to only pay to 3 places which dampens my ardour. But in any case it's due to be very cold, so last night I took the pragmatic decision to have a look round the all-weather cards and after a bit of digging I did notice a little nugget of interest.

With only five declared and three in with a more obvious chance for this decent Lingfield handicap, the market isn't really sure what to make of it - there's only currently 2% overround on the best book, so the prices are certainly fair and I think 9/4 about C&D winner MUNRO understates his chance.

Munro won well on his last visit here in a class 4 for in-form R Beckett. You can put a line through his next run where he tackled mission impossible in a conditions race at Kempton, ending up circa. 20 lbs wrong with the 1st and 2nd home from the worst draw. He drops back here into a class 3 against much lesser opposition, with the form of his 2 wins having worked out particularly well. He also arrives as one of the least exposed.

Moreover, from a stats perspective, R Beckett's record with C&D winners at this venue is attractive. Looking at all his C&D runners on the Lingfield polytrack over the past decade, he is 5 wins from 14, for a blind LSP of +3.95. All the winners coming since 2012 and, crucially, winning with 3 of the last 4.

All things considered, I think Munro should be clear favourite. On my tissue he'd be around 6/4 and certainly no higher than 15/8. Adam Kirby does the steering.

2pt win, Munro 9/4 various

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/RACING-FORUM

** WON - smooth victory, never looked in much doubt **

Ralph Beckett, laughing teacakes

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