21 Jan 2017

Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Grade 2)

The Peter Marsh is something of a punting graveyard, although that should be music to the ears of value players. For instance, if you had simply put a pound on every runner at SP this century you would currently be £29.25 up. Clearly, this is not a race where it pays to follow the head of the market.

That profit rises to £48.00 if you had just backed all runners that went off at 14/1+, including winners at 16/1, 16/1, 20/1 and 33/1 - two of those won from outside the handicap; Ebony Light who won in 2006 at 33's was 22lbs out of the handicap. It's that kind of race.

David Pipe has a good record. 1 win and 1 placed from 3 runners - the winner was Our Vic at 20/1 who I can still remember romping around in the mud, making all. Pipe is represented this year by Gevrey Chambertin, who enjoyed his finest moment over the fixed brush hurdles in a Grade 3 on soft, but who has proved less effective over the larger obstacles. It's the logical race for him, and no doubt they hope to get a soft lead and dictate (Bristol De Mai should make that tricky).

On the topic of slippery customers, the leading contender on all counts (and by some distance) is Sue Smith whose record this century is 3 wins and 4 placed from 11 starts, which improves to 5 win or placed from 6 when training for Trevor Hemmings at his favourite track.

This year they field the unexposed VINTAGE CLOUDS (can't imagine how he thought up that name) and he looks an obvious candidate for each way support at a general 10/1, 3x1/4, and quite probably laid out.

My plan though is to split stakes with SAUSALITO SUNRISE who has by far his best chance to shine for a while in handicap company. He's a really thorough stayer and classy with it, and the strong pace for the conditions is likely to play to his strengths.

0.5pt EW Vintage Clouds 10/1, 3x1/4
0.5pt EW Sausalito Sunrise 12/1, 3x1/4

Herbie authors the Key Racing Gold thread on the ENIGMA Forum - check the performance at: WWW.ENIGMARACING.NET/RACING-FORUM

** Feedback: Sausalito Sunrise hit the deck early so we never got to see what he would have done which was a huge pity as he looked primed for a big run. They threw the kitchen sink at Vintage Clouds but he was just starting to back pedal when coming down in contention for the frame late on **

Sue Smith, unlikely to be fined for a non-trier this afternoon...

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