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21 Dec 2016

The Irish Grand National - Race Profile

First published on a previous Key Racing News blog, 26th March 2016.

In big field handicaps that tend to throw up lots of surprises many bookmakers extend each way terms to 5 places, comfortable in the knowledge that broadly speaking punters will still tend to happily over bet a small pool of runners at the head of the market.

However for the smarter backer, races as unpredictable as the Irish Grand National can represent a gold mine for each way betting - this is a race that since 2000 has produced SP winners between 33/1 and 50/1 no less than 5 times - not to mention a further 12 in the frame, which rises to 16 when betting to 5 places.

That's 21 win or placed from 95 horses who set off between 33/1 and 50/1, a strike rate of 22.1%. Even betting blind to 1pt level win stakes that's a profit of 92.00 (+96.8% ROI), however you can effectively filter these down a little without taking too many chances. 

If you apply; max weight 10-12, a run in the last 16 to 92 days and bred in IRE or FR, the picture improves to 5 wins from 69 qualifiers - and still a further 16 in the frame for 30.4% win or placed. Again even to level stakes this is +118pts (+171% ROI).

But with the high percentage win or placed, this is situation when profits can be enhanced by simple each way betting, with the advantage of smoothing out the journey between drinks.

Staking all qualifiers 1/2 point each way has only failed to produce a profit in one year this century - quite a staggering statistic - while generating a total profit of 134.87pts (+195.46 ROI). Better not tell Tom Segal. Obviously bets cannot be placed until close to post time, but we'll be looking with interest on Monday.

Herbie is one of the resident pro-gamblers in
ENIGMA:

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** Feedback: from 5 qualifiers this year the system got 2 in the frame (to 5 places) at SP's of 33/1 Ballyadam Approach and 40/1 Bearly Legal, for yet another very profitable year **



Irish National 2014 - 5 of the first 6 home returned SP's between 16/1 and 40/1

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